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For the unemployed, the duration since last employment is a better predictor of future employment than the self-reported duration of unemployment is, as the two duration measures often disagree.
The disagreement is not caused by classification error but rather arises because self-reported durations reflect individuals’ in short-term jobs either temporarily suspending their search or continuing search while working.
Consistent with these empirical observations, this paper extends a standard macroeconomic model to include financial intermediation, long-term defaultable loans, and occasional financial crises.
Within this framework, crises are typically preceded by prolonged boom periods.
This paper answers fundamental questions that have preoccupied modern economic thought since the 18th century.
What is the aggregate real rate of return in the economy?
Analysis of the term structure of interest rates almost always takes a two-step approach.
Those who were recently employed are twice as likely to find a job as those who report wanting a job.We decompose firm-specific stock returns into two components: one that is explained by observed covariates (or fitted values), the other unexplained (or residuals).We construct networks based on the co-movement of these components.During such episodes, intermediaries expand their lending and leverage, thereby building up financial fragility.Crises are generally initiated by a moderate adverse shock that puts pressure on intermediaries’ balance sheets, triggering a creditor run, a contraction in new lending, and ultimately a deep and persistent recession.
Which particular assets have the highest long-run returns?